The Lebanese annus horribilis
The most powerful explosion ever seen in Beirut destroyed the port and half the city, causing over 150 deaths, about 5000 injured and leaving 300 thousand people homeless. The economic damage is estimated between 3 and 5 billion dollars, the moral one is not quantifiable; but the tragedy of 4 August is only the latest, in chronological order, of the problems that this ominous 2020 has reserved for Lebanon.
The year 2020 began with protests (already underway since last autumn) against a historically corrupted and sectarian government, an unprecedented economic crisis and the progressive lack of essential services. The resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri did little, given that not even the new government seemed to be able to carry out the structural reforms necessary to restart the country. Thus, the free fall of the Lebanese pound (-80% of its value since October) has gone hand in hand with rising unemployment and, as of now, more than half of the population lives below the poverty line.
In March, coinciding with the introduction of anti-COVID measures, the government announced that it was no longer able to repay the foreign debt and that it would miss, for the first time in its history, an imminent deadline of 1,2 billion dollars. For the third most indebted country in the world (90 billion dollars, equal to 170 percent of GDP) the path of default was inevitable. In an attempt to restructure its debt, Beirut has started conversations with the International Monetary Fund, but the fear of overly burdensome conditionalities and the initial opposition from Hezbollah have slowed down the talks.
The Party of God is one of the targets of the protests which, despite Covid-19, have continued in recent months. If it is true that it is often exaggeratedly used as the scapegoat for every evil in the country, it is equally true that the one led by Nasrallah is a symbol of Lebanese sectarianism and an element of instability when looking at the southern border. Since the beginning of the year, episodes of friction with Israel have increased both in Lebanon and in Syria, where Shiite militiamen meet with the Iranian Pasdaran.
It is therefore no coincidence that the first to be accused of the Ground Zero in Beirut were precisely the Israeli neighbors, who promptly denied any accusations. The port of the Lebanese capital is essential for both the economy and the subsistence of the country, which produces little and imports almost everything. Much of what arrives is stored in silos before being sorted. Lebanon’s main grain reserve, just to give an example, was destroyed in the explosion, leaving the Lebanese just over a month of autonomy.
But the port of Beirut is also one of the main hubs in The Mediterranean, a terminal for Middle Eastern trade and a privileged outlet for the famous Shiite crescent, which connects Iran to the Mare nostrum via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. If the entry into force last June of the Caesar Law (a package of American sanctions against Syria and those who do business with it) had already been a serious blow to the Lebanese economy, which has always been linked to that of its terrestrial neighbor, the destruction of the port marks its definitive decline.
A new phase is thus opening for Lebanon, made up of humanitarian aid and greater interference from third countries which, under the pretext of reconstruction, will try to carve out a significant space in the future of the Levantine state. Airplanes loaded with medical supplies have already arrived from various Arab and European countries including Italy, France (Macron himself went to Beirut), Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and others will follow in the coming days.
The Lebanese power-sharing system will probably be questioned and, at best, some long-advocated reforms will have to be implemented in order to gain access to the international funds needed to restart. Hezbollah too will inevitably be reduced, but only time will tell us what the reaction of the population will be and what new structure the small coastal state will assume.
Lebanon and the Lebanese have learned to get up quickly, they have done so on several occasions, and will do it once again. The only hope is that this annus horribilis will not reserve further surprises for the Land of the Cedars.
Davide Garavoglia
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