Israel, the Gulf states and the ‘normalization’ of regional relations
After several years, the “normalization” of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Gulf countries is now becoming reality.
The relations between the Arab countries and the State of Israel have been conflicting since the creation of the latter, and the Palestinian question has up to now been the greatest obstacle to conciliation between the parties.
While Egypt and Jordan have for years now (the first in 1979, the second 1994) established relations with Jerusalem, only now and only thanks to the mediation of the United States — also decisive in the first two cases — the relations between some Gulf countries and Israel are officializing. The United Arab Emirates has led the way, recognizing the Jewish state and initiating bilateral negotiations in light of the Israeli commitment to suspend annexation plans for parts of the West Bank: the “Abraham Accords” (this is the name chosen for the treaty) has been signed on September 15 in Washington.
This decision inevitably aroused opposite reactions between the different factions: while it saw the satisfaction of Western countries (the USA in the lead), Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania and international organizations such as the United Nations, it did not the same to the other Arab states. The Palestinian leadership harshly condemned the agreement, considering it a betrayal, and Iran and Turkey shared the same opinion, with the latter threatening to suspend diplomatic relations with the UAE.
In the Persian Gulf, the Emirati initiative seems to have inspired other countries, which are following the example of Abu Dhabi. Bahrain has announced the start of formal diplomatic relations and, in all likelihood, will be followed by Oman. The great unknown, at this point, remains Riyadh: the strong American influence, the close link with the Emirates and the decision to open its airspace to flights to and from Tel Aviv would suggest that the direction is the same as that of its neighbors.
Saudi Arabia has certainly a very different weight in the Arab world, hosting the two holiest places for Muslims (Medina and Mecca) on its soil. King Salman made it clear that before normalization of bilateral relations can start, a lasting and fair answer to the Palestinian question must be found, which inevitably involves the creation of two states. Up until now, Washington’s attempts to achieve further diplomatic success in the area have been in vain.
Yes, because if Israel’s agreements with the Emirates and Bahrain have given Trump some excellent points for the upcoming presidential elections, the one with Riyadh would be a historic result for the Middle East (hence Trump’s candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize). A partnership between Israel and Saudi Arabia would also entail a strengthening of the anti-Iranian axis, which could lead to marked collaboration also on the military level. However, it would also mean going against a certain number of Arab countries and a good portion of their population.
The unknowns remain. First of all, Netanyahu spoke of the “suspension” of the annexation plans, clarifying that they will remain unchanged. If much will depend on the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, it seems difficult that tangible results will be obtained with these premises in the short term. Meanwhile, Riyadh is pondering the next move, uncertain whether to officially embrace the historical enemy (risking a new regional crisis) or to continue to do so unofficially, maintaining its position and exploiting the United States (and from today also some neighboring countries) as intermediaries.
We are certainly facing a turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitical relations but we do not know in what direction it will be or even if it will facilitate the peace process, or, on the contrary, contribute to compromising it.
Davide Garavoglia
This article was originally posted in Italian on Polikós: https://www.polikos.it/geopolitica/2020/09/israele-i-paesi-del-golfo-e-la-normalizzazione-dei-rapporti-regionali/
