Iraq: towards the Italian leadership of the NATO mission

According to several testimonies, Italy has a very good chance to lead the NATO mission in Iraq, succeeding the current Danish leadership. The candidacy was officially received through various diplomatic channels and seems to have won the favor of other member countries. The news emerges a few days after the announcement by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg regarding the decision to increase the presence of troops in the territory from the current 500 to 4000 units, at the request of the Iraqi authorities.

The contingent, almost exclusively made up of Europeans and Canadians, will see in the Italians the largest component, a significant element that supports the thesis of an upcoming tricolor leadership. Italy is already present in the country, as in other Middle Eastern countries (it has historically been the head of the UNIFIL Mission in Lebanon), with training and support activities for the local armed forces both in Baghdad and in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

At the border with Syria, where jihadist groups linked to the Islamic State (and not only) continue to operate, the anti-Isis Coalition focuses its activities, which has so far employed, among others, about 1100 Italian soldiers. With the strengthening of the mission, NATO will assume some functions held up to now by the Coalition.

Over the past 5 years, over 45,000 Peshmerga have been trained and the commitment of our military has been unanimously recognized. The confirmation of Guerini as Minister of Defense is a further sign of the centrality of the Iraqi dossier in the political agenda of the Draghi government: during the past year the minister made four visits to Iraq and reiterated the importance of having a presence in the area and the need to «extend training, consultancy and exercise activities, in line with safety conditions».

The implementation of the mission has multiple objectives, some official and others unofficial. If this move is counted as “support for Iraqi forces in the fight against terrorism”, it cannot also be considered an attempt to stem Iranian influence. At a time of gradual withdrawal of US troops, which have always been disliked by a large part of the local population and found guilty by the government of having repeatedly violated Iraqi territorial integrity (the killing of the Iranian general Soleimani in Baghdad is a striking example), the risk of a further increase in pressure from Tehran is real.

The “replacement” of American troops with those of other countries less exposed to regional political disputes therefore appears appropriate, and it’s in line with the program (albeit slowed down compared to the previous administration) of a gradual military withdrawal in the Middle East. However, disengagement should not be understood as disinterest: with the air blitz against pro-Iranian militias in Syria on February 26 (the first of the Biden era), the United States has in fact reiterated that attacks against its compatriots or against the coalition will not go unpunished.

The greater role of the NATO mission must therefore be read as a change of strategy, aimed at greater involvement of the other members of the Alliance. The United States will mainly contribute to the provision of military aircraft and helicopters and with the support of hi-tech information-gathering technology.

Italy has a great opportunity and a great responsibility ahead. In fact, if the country were to be granted leadership of the mission in Iraq, Italy would find itself at the center of an incandescent situation and careful work not only strategic-military but also political-diplomatic, will be essential.

If, on the one hand, the increase in attacks against Western forces will require inflexible responses and a constant commitment to confront jihadist groups, on the other hand, our diplomacy must be able to defuse the latent tensions between the governments involved to avoid that, as happens in Syria, Iraq is transformed into a proxy battleground.

Davide Garavoglia

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This article was originally posted in Italian on Polikòs:
https://www.polikos.it/geopolitica/2021/03/iraq-italia-verso-la-guida-della-coalizione-nato/